tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53371422024-03-13T17:12:03.828-04:00The I Told You So NewsletterA different take on Financial PlanningUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger140125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-8080951574091072102010-03-25T13:18:00.004-04:002010-03-25T13:36:30.049-04:00The big lie from Wall Street and the Automakers regarding compensation has always been,If you cut our salaries, our talent will leave and the firm's value will take a substantial hit. I have always maintained this was a big lie, with no basis in fact for the following reasons:Talent is overrated- if one is truly superstar talent, people will knock on your door and try to poach you regardless of Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-49948895742633908672009-09-18T13:10:00.004-04:002009-09-18T13:12:45.560-04:00Just as the GE hammer bottom we talked about in our March post was a great time to buy, now is a great time to sell. Middle to late September should be the ultimate time to get out. Yesterdays action was indicative of a short to intermediate term top. Leaders like GE made major reversals yesterday, forging into new high territory and closing lower on volume. Will this be a pause that Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-50318090153044147172009-09-14T08:57:00.004-04:002009-09-14T09:00:33.837-04:00One year after Lehman and nothing has changed. Banks will not lend you money but they will charge you exorbitant fees for overdrafts and late payments. Bank management will award themselves elaborate bonuses while laying off their underlings. Foreclosures continue to set records, NFL stadiums are not selling out, ticket sales on Broadway are down. The average persons life sucks whether or notUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-70705135243917629492009-09-07T21:08:00.002-04:002009-09-07T21:14:27.705-04:00The 2009 Jerry Lewis telethon raised $60.5 million, $5 million less than last year, another sure sign that the economy is still in the pits, with no sign of meaningful recovery. Some multi decade trends have been reversed--first the State of Florida has lost population this year. This was the first year over year drop in over 60 years. Now, donations to the MDA telethon have waned. Further Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-53010578974685394372009-07-01T13:20:00.003-04:002009-07-01T13:24:08.076-04:00Citibank aka Citislime, is fattening the salaries of its employees and at the same time raising the interest rates on 15 million credit card customers. They are able to be so bold because the government has their back. If the increased credit card rates lead to higher default rates, the government will bail them out again. There is no risk to Citislime so they are pushing the envelope. Either Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-74589048129422809292009-06-26T09:40:00.002-04:002009-06-26T09:45:48.945-04:00While walking my dog early this morning, I saw all my neighbors who work in finance very chipper as they headed for work. Banks are very busy pushing loans to close before the quarter ends on June 30th. They will report great earnings and pat themselves on the back with bonuses which they think they deserve, but we know they don't. After this "comeback" quarter, the economy will lapse back Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-73921444851683259362009-06-19T09:53:00.003-04:002009-06-19T09:56:39.484-04:00Apple is trading around $138 today. It is a sale, and if you are aggressive, it is a short for two reasons: 1. It has rallied over 75% in a little over 3 months; more importantly, it unveiled the next generation I-phone, but the buzz was muted. No lines outside most Apple stores; Blackberry and Palm are also more formidable alternatives.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-71083935733163449582009-03-26T15:46:00.002-04:002009-03-26T15:52:29.188-04:00So far so good on the GE hammer panic bottom. GE is now consistently trading over $10 from its low under $7. The Dow is up almost 1500 points off its lowest low. Not coincidentally, a friend who I regard as a great trader on Wall Street called me at the beginning of the month to tell me he was seriously considering taking a job as a doorman. Another person very close to me manages a small Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-5516342810761902412009-03-04T18:47:00.003-05:002009-03-04T18:52:52.433-05:00Could today's action mark what candlestick chartists call a hammer bottom on GE? GE traded at $5.73 intraday, closed at $6.69 on tremendous volume of approx 750 million shares. GE trading at this level would be an unfathomable occurrence less than a year ago. But by today's standards of imploding stock prices by America's formerly large companies, its just another day at the office! Only time Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-72968509522797077422008-12-08T10:00:00.003-05:002008-12-08T10:03:45.210-05:00We have now entered the phase of this bear cycle when the news gets worse and the stock market goes up. Most will be scratching their heads not realizing that the market is a discounting mechanism, always looking forward not at the past or even the present. Couple this with the year end incentive to prop the market up to save some face and we could get a nice December. In 2009 all bets will beUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-88200696035771057012008-12-01T18:12:00.002-05:002008-12-01T18:16:03.038-05:00An official recession was declared today by the bozos of the National Bureau of Economic Research. They are a year after the fact. Why employ over educated no nothing economists who live in a bubble to look at data all day and make worthless forecasts? Just ask the cab drivers, truck drivers, Fedex and UPS drivers, retail clerks, hotel maids, etc..... What a novel concept-- ask real people Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-14242924106176929862008-11-21T22:11:00.002-05:002008-11-21T22:14:37.250-05:00The NYC Real Estate market is officially kaput. It has long been exempt from the nationwide downturn, from subprime, etc. Until now. Buyers are scared, banks are not lending. Layoffs from Wall Street abound. Foreign buyers have shunned the Island of Manhattan. Game over. The residential real estate market is on the brink of a severe downturn. And the bigger they are the harder they fall.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-24400676424679872492008-10-13T22:51:00.003-04:002008-10-13T22:57:22.467-04:00This was the biggest one day gain ever by the Dow. 29 of the 30 Dow stocks were up except for GE--which speaks volumes about the sustainability of this rally. It seems clear to me that GE is now being used as the institutional money fund yielding close to 6%. Money comes out of GE and into other stocks, then back to GE when the rally fizzles. In other words there is no new money coming into Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-37472204687209678902008-10-06T21:54:00.003-04:002008-10-06T22:02:57.704-04:00Fear is rampant on Wall Street. The Dow breaks 10,000. At one instance today it was down over 800 points. The VIX (volatility index) reached 58 an extremely high number. There were 1364 new lows on the NYSE vs. 3 new highs. Technically, its as extreme as it gets. Cramer the clown is now telling people to sell after most major averages are down 35% from their highs. Until this new Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-75283699616723636492008-09-18T15:27:00.002-04:002008-09-18T15:30:15.896-04:00Yesterday and today GE was yielding close to 6%, Goldman Sachs this morning sold at around $86 below its book value of $100. Ben Stein the Pollyanna economist finally threw in the towel. Its also option expiration week and nobody uttered the word "bottom" today on CNBC. So this can only mean one thing, Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy quality names, not the dogs.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-52705527987558160132008-09-16T13:21:00.002-04:002008-09-16T13:24:27.446-04:00A glaring example of how we got into the trouble we are in is personified in an article in today's NY Post. A "Wealth Manager" and I use the term lightly, lost more than $6 million dollars of his own personal money in Lehman stock. Talk about not practicing what you preach. How did this guy get a job, let alone accumulate $6 million? These are the imbeciles we entrust with money? To read theUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-5808027846988976282008-09-15T08:51:00.002-04:002008-09-15T09:06:05.218-04:00It has come to my attention that my posts have become too dark, too serious. Its time for me to lighten up. So here's food for thought: The zit faced long haired teenager donning a Grateful Dead T-shirt who mows your lawn has a better business model than the Ivy Educated pinstriped suit complete with tortoise shell glasses and a Blackberry. The gap toothed freckled faced pig tailed 7 year oldUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-79933630952073686222008-09-14T22:59:00.003-04:002008-09-14T23:09:06.977-04:00"You've got to accentuate the positive Eliminate the negative Latch on to the affirmative Don't mess with Mister In-Between You've got to spread joy up to the maximum Bring gloom down to the minimum Have faith or pandemonium Liable to walk upon the scene" written by Johnny Mercer/Harold Arlen.The above lyrics sum up the Pollyanna talking heads on CNBC. Buy, Buy, Buy!!! Its a bottom! I have Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-18917626987045142232008-09-05T12:58:00.002-04:002008-09-05T13:03:28.630-04:00In this vicious hedge fund unwind liquidation phase of the bear market, even stocks I thought might be enticing on a pullback have gone through my pullback numbers like a hot knife through butter. For example AMED is now around 48 and AFAM has pulled all the way back to its 50 day MA around 35. In the case of AMED it is now almost 30% off its 52 wk high, and AFAM is now in the middle of a 21% Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-17329262988913985822008-08-24T21:24:00.002-04:002008-08-24T21:29:12.804-04:00There was an article about hedge funds in Barron's this weekend and its the kind of article you are sure to see repeated by various media outlets in the coming months. Hedge fund investors want their money back before it evaporates completely especially in the poorest performing Hedge Funds. But Hedge Funds are changing the rules on them. They are putting a moratorium on redemptions to stem Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-35050636916117258632008-07-27T11:10:00.002-04:002008-07-27T11:15:46.593-04:00In these troubled times it is difficult to search for the bright spots of the business scene. We previously pointed out pawn shops as an obvious choice. Here is another--Home Health Care. The aging population of the U.S. demands home health care services for the foreseeable future. The leader in this field is Amedisys, Inc. symbol AMED. AMED is very overextended. Do not buy this at its Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-79171493712601854212008-07-25T13:54:00.002-04:002008-07-25T14:01:09.391-04:00The market loves Qualcomm $54.24 (QCOM). QCOM holds many wireless patents. They just settled a long running patent dispute with Nokia (NOK). Immediately upon the news the stock broke above $50 and the buying pressure continues. The market likes the news. QCOM is a great way to play wireless. You dont need to anticipate who will produce the next cool handset: Nokia, Motorola, Apple, Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-48640773732254574692008-07-25T00:26:00.002-04:002008-07-25T00:54:51.597-04:00In a classic sell on the news, EZPW announced good earnings then reversed from its high over $18 to $17.24 on twice its normal average daily volume. Because we have over a 40% gain in little over 4 months, I would take 33% off the table, and manage the rest of the position. As a general rule of thumb whenever I have a 25% profit in a position, I sell 20% and manage the rest. If I have a 50% Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-85049946055984025262008-07-20T18:28:00.003-04:002008-11-13T02:09:39.876-05:00In a scene reminiscent of a 1930's Depression era run on the banks, Indymac depositors angrily lined up earlier last week to demand their money after the bank was taken over by the FDIC. Adding credence to the theory that money and brains are mutually exclusive, it was reported that at least 10,000 of Indymac's 275,000 accounts had in excess of the federally insured limit of $100,000. How can Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337142.post-64721094744621525922008-07-13T22:15:00.002-04:002008-07-13T22:19:29.000-04:00Update on pawnshop operator EZ Corp (EZPW), originally recommended around $12 on March 23rd. As of Friday July 10th close it is now $16.36 having pre announced higher earnings for the quarter ended June 30th. Earnings are due out July 24th and there will be a conference call on the web. Unfortunately pawn shops are thriving in this very poor economy. This company seems to be a needle in the Unknownnoreply@blogger.com