Showing posts with label bear market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bear market. Show all posts

Monday, October 06, 2008

Fear is rampant on Wall Street. The Dow breaks 10,000. At one instance today it was down over 800 points. The VIX (volatility index) reached 58 an extremely high number. There were 1364 new lows on the NYSE vs. 3 new highs. Technically, its as extreme as it gets. Cramer the clown is now telling people to sell after most major averages are down 35% from their highs. Until this new philosophy, his mantra was "There's always a bull market somewhere" And he is right, only now in hindsight, his bull market was in stupidity.

The perma bulls even recognize we are in a bear market. Pollyanna economists now admit the economy is in a recession. The great unwind is upon us and it is in its most violent phase. Those that have kept cash waiting for this "rainy day" are licking their chops. GE yielding over 6%; FCX trading around 37 down from a high of 127; Apple Computer from 182 to 87. Start loading up on the long side, but with quality. The crap will never come back.

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

There are three phases to a bear market--denial, acceptance and capitulation. Last summer when Citi fell from 55 to 45 then to 35 analysts were pounding the table begging anyone that would listen to buy, buy, buy. This was the denial phase. Now we are hearing in the general media that we are in bear market territory down 20% on the Dow. Who ever came up with this stupid benchmark should be shot, but thats for another discussion. So now we are entering the acceptance phase, albeit reluctantly. Hey even GM was downgraded to sell by Goldman after making a 53 year low. You will hear the parade of talking heads on TV telling us "Don't Panic", there's "value" its close to the "bottom", yada yada yada. The same talking heads that thought that the housing sub-prime credit crisis was "contained" are now urging us not to panic. Funny isnt it???? After several months of acceptance we will be ready for the capitulation phase which will include more scandals, suicides and arrests, a forced liquidation of some more hedge funds that bet wrong, and stocks selling for seemingly unthinkable levels---Citi $5 anyone? Then and only then will the next fortunes be made. There will be light at the end of the tunnel and this time that light will not be in the form of an oncoming train.