Saturday, May 03, 2003

In honor of Denzel Washington in his role as the estranged father of Jesus Shuttlesworth (Ray Allen) in the movie "He Got Game" We Pick the horse Atswhatimtalknbout in todays Kentucky Derby. If this long shot should win, instead of telling you "I told you so" I will say, "Thats What I'm Talking About, Son"!

Friday, May 02, 2003

One only needs to look at a chart of Tyco symbol TYC and notice that the market does not want to go down in the face of accounting fraud news. Its an old story and all the sellers have sold.
We told you so-KROL has left the building. Its close above 26 make this a pure breakout. CAJ is about to leave the building closing above 41. We are close to being stopped out of our IGT short as it heads to 88. MTG is on our radar for a potential short play on the real estate bubble. More on this at a later date.

Thursday, May 01, 2003

Stocks to watch KROL- over 25 its a multi year breakout. Also a buy on any pullback to the 23 area. Cannon Corp. symbol-CAJ is the latest and strongest Japanese stock we are adding to our list. The Cannon products are actually selling well and the stock on a relative strength basis is holding up well in this vicious Japanese bear market.
Government Prosecutors' Enron Strategy--"Blame It On The Jews"
Seizing upon a climate of growing anti-semitism, the prosecution brilliantly indicted Lea Weingarten Fastow today. After all, what rich Jewish father would not do everything in his power to ensure that "Daddys Little Girl" doesn't go to jail? Including but not limited to advising his daughter to rat out the bigger fish!
According to the Stock Traders Almanac today starts the worst 6 months of stock market returns. Returns over a 51 yr period from November to April are 41 times better than the period May to October! Question--Has anybody done a study on Austrailian stocks? Their seasons are opposite to ours so maybe its the start of the best 6 months for Austrailian stocks.

Wednesday, April 30, 2003

More signs that the real estate bubble is starting to burst in the NYC Metropolitan Area:
People on the periphery of real estate such as associate brokers, title examiners, etc. are speculating in Manhattan apartments by buying every unsold sponsor unit they can find, hoping to “flip” the unit for a quick profit.

FYI-the Japanese Bank MTF was up 16% today. We added to our SNE long position at 24.75.
Some signs of a real estate top: Todays CBS Marketwatch has an article about people pulling money out of the stock market to buy second homes as a "savings technique". The theory is that real estate appreciation now is the cure all for their losses on other investments. These are the same people who pulled their money out of bonds to place them in index mutual stock funds at the top of the stock market. The other signs to look for are the proliferation of gimmick mortgages-- adjustable rate loans with negative amortization. These loans have 'teaser rates" which allow the borrower to borrow for a small period of time, usually less than one year at below market rates. Borrowers get sucked in and are subsequently trapped as the rate adjusts upward and at the same time the value of their property declines.

Prediction---More people will lose their homes as the result of low interest rates than any other time in U.S. history. More on this at a later time.
Editorial—Crybaby Investors Create Bull Market in Lawsuits

The recent Billion Dollar Settlement Raises Some Interesting Questions:

When the fix was in on the upside did anybody complain? Was anybody kidnapped, blindfolded and tied up in a room and precluded from taking profits? Did anyone realize that the peak 2000 market value of Yahoo, AOL and Amazon (total employment 11,000) was greater than the market value of Boeing, General Motors and Disney (total employment 400,000)? Did most investors discover the stock market in 1999? What happened to the other 200 years?

Did employees really believe that they could show up at work, turn on their computer and watch their company stock rise day after day without selling the product?

How can day traders and those who trade electronically (without a broker) put in a settlement claim, alleging some analyst defrauded them? Just watch their creative revisionist history!

The Nikkei Average in Japan was up 3% last night---Don't make me say, "I told you so"
Our Model Portfolio to date: Short IGT@85; Long SNE@24.50; Long GLW@5.75. The portfolio will be updated whenever it changes.

Tuesday, April 29, 2003

They say volitility comes at the end of the move (up or down). Well if that is true, check out a chart of IGT- International Game Technology, the slot machine company. If that isnt a triple top I dont know what one is. Fundamentally all the hotels are crying that travel is off. Check out todays news on Starwood Hotels, for example. So how could the gambling take be showing any growth? This stock is way overpriced.
Dumbest Corporate Finance Department Award goes to Corning (GLW) who announced last night they are selling 50 million shares at $5.43 to raise cash presumably to pay down debt. A couple of years ago, they had the same debt and the stock was over $100/share. The same 50 million shares would have raised $5 billion and paid off the debt completely twice. What did these MBA's do with the money their parents gave them for graduate school? Note- I have a long position in GLW
Take advantage of the SARS scare to buy the oversold Japanese stocks such as SNE, HIT, JOF and MTF. These stocks are so oversold at the end of a 21 year sell off. They dont ring a bell at the bottom, but they are certainly blowing their noses and coughing at the bottom. Note--In the interest of full disclosure, I do put my money (what little I have) where my mouth is; I bought SNE today at 24.50.
Disclaimer--I am not a financial analyst. The opinions expressed herein are solely mine. I will add to my disclaimer as I see fit. I think all financial planning is bullshit. Financial planners work for commissions. The posts herein are free and for information only.