Monday, July 21, 2003

Follow up on COCO- we never got our short off as the stock never did break down at 44. It is still on our short radar list, but we do not invent trades! We let the market come to us. Not trading is a decision too, just as buy and sell are.
The mortgage refinance boom is over. If you did not refinance your mortgage its too late. The housing and mortgage companies will start to roll over and die. Look out below! Since our lst post on this subject on June 21, the 10 T-Bill (which mortgage rates are based) has gone up over 1% from a low of 3.09 to over 4.17% today. This is a tremendous move in a one month period of time. People dont even realize this and they will be shocked when they find out they did not lock in the rate at the time of their application.

Back to the stock market correction---Key support on the S&P exists in the 965 to 975 area. The Nasdaq can fall to 1600. Once we are there it will be the moment of truth, ie. is this a pullback with a great buying opportunity, or is it the next leg of the bear market. We are watching this very closely and once the evidence points overwhelmingly to one side of this argument, we will let everyone know.