Tuesday, July 01, 2008
There are three phases to a bear market--denial, acceptance and capitulation. Last summer when Citi fell from 55 to 45 then to 35 analysts were pounding the table begging anyone that would listen to buy, buy, buy. This was the denial phase. Now we are hearing in the general media that we are in bear market territory down 20% on the Dow. Who ever came up with this stupid benchmark should be shot, but thats for another discussion. So now we are entering the acceptance phase, albeit reluctantly. Hey even GM was downgraded to sell by Goldman after making a 53 year low. You will hear the parade of talking heads on TV telling us "Don't Panic", there's "value" its close to the "bottom", yada yada yada. The same talking heads that thought that the housing sub-prime credit crisis was "contained" are now urging us not to panic. Funny isnt it???? After several months of acceptance we will be ready for the capitulation phase which will include more scandals, suicides and arrests, a forced liquidation of some more hedge funds that bet wrong, and stocks selling for seemingly unthinkable levels---Citi $5 anyone? Then and only then will the next fortunes be made. There will be light at the end of the tunnel and this time that light will not be in the form of an oncoming train.