With the real estate market malaise that we warned you about, and with interest rates ticking higher and gas prices, its obvious that adults don't have the same amount of $$$ to buy expensive toys. Thus Harley Davidson (HOG) is exhibit A as the type of company that will struggle from future sluggish sales. Short Harley Davidson, up to 66, with a buy stop above 70. If we are right about this one, the downside is almost 20 points to the low 40's.