Friday, May 21, 2004

A new investment idea in the face of rising oil prices--Harley Davidson (HDI) trades for around $56.50. Harleys have growing popularity with yuppies, wannabes, white trash, and aging baby boomers going through a mid life crisis. Now they can use the better fuel economy arguement to justify their purchase of a new Harley which they have been putting off for whatever reason.
The Dow Transports did not confirm the sell signal. The lowest the Transports traded was 2785 and rallied each time. The transports failed to take out the March lows below 2750 on a closing basis. There is still hope on the upside. Things to look for next week, falling oil futures (which of course helps the transports) and GE closing above 31 a very key level.

Thursday, May 20, 2004

Further anectodal evidence that the stock markets rally from Dow 7700 to Dow 10,500 this past winter is fizzing out---The news item about a wall street banker running up a $28,000 tab at Scores, a New York Strip Joint.
Three people ordered several bottles of a $3200 champagne, and spent $7000 on 350 lap dances at $20 per. Anybody with a clue knows that these stories don't come out at the bottom, but always at the top. I am still waiting for a story about Mexican cab drivers quitting thier jobs to become day traders!

Monday, May 17, 2004

Some special situations in this dreary market. LEXR just signed a deal with Kodak (EK) for digital memory. LEXR is very, very oversold and at a good value around $9. SGP is close to FDA approval on a cholestorol drug. SGP sells for $16.50 and could in the next 6 to 18 months trade in the high 20's or more. TWX is a classic beaten down, turnaround situation. At 16.30 TWX management will do something in the near future to enhance the stock price.

Sunday, May 16, 2004

Short IGT, the slot machine company, one of the markets best performers over the past years is now on the verge of being a broken stock technically. Short it on any rally to the 40 area, add to your position, below 36. Cover your short for a loss above 43.25. The downside target is 24. I looked at this chart after reading a NY Times Magazine Cover Story about IGT and the slot machine craze last Sunday. Of course the article proclaimed IGT to be the "Microsoft" of slot machine technology. Of course this is a non-financial publication making a call on a national mania, well after the mania has been fully recognized by the stock market. They don't ring a bell at the top, but this article is as good as the December 1999 Time Man of the Year article on Jeff Bezos CEO of At the time of that article AMZN was 116, it fell to 12 over the next 2 1/2 years. Need I say more?