Friday, September 18, 2009

Just as the GE hammer bottom we talked about in our March post was a great time to buy, now is a great time to sell. Middle to late September should be the ultimate time to get out. Yesterdays action was indicative of a short to intermediate term top. Leaders like GE made major reversals yesterday, forging into new high territory and closing lower on volume. Will this be a pause that refreshes or the beginning of the double dip to test the lows? No one knows for sure, if they claim that, they are liars. But I can smell profit taking.

Monday, September 14, 2009

One year after Lehman and nothing has changed. Banks will not lend you money but they will charge you exorbitant fees for overdrafts and late payments. Bank management will award themselves elaborate bonuses while laying off their underlings. Foreclosures continue to set records, NFL stadiums are not selling out, ticket sales on Broadway are down. The average persons life sucks whether or not the banking system was saved.

Monday, September 07, 2009

The 2009 Jerry Lewis telethon raised $60.5 million, $5 million less than last year, another sure sign that the economy is still in the pits, with no sign of meaningful recovery. Some multi decade trends have been reversed--first the State of Florida has lost population this year. This was the first year over year drop in over 60 years. Now, donations to the MDA telethon have waned. Further evidence that there is no money out there anymore.

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Citibank aka Citislime, is fattening the salaries of its employees and at the same time raising the interest rates on 15 million credit card customers. They are able to be so bold because the government has their back. If the increased credit card rates lead to higher default rates, the government will bail them out again. There is no risk to Citislime so they are pushing the envelope. Either way they will get their money, either directly from you the credit card customer, or indirectly from you the taxpayer.

Friday, June 26, 2009

While walking my dog early this morning, I saw all my neighbors who work in finance very chipper as they headed for work. Banks are very busy pushing loans to close before the quarter ends on June 30th. They will report great earnings and pat themselves on the back with bonuses which they think they deserve, but we know they don't. After this "comeback" quarter, the economy will lapse back into a coma this summer. Bankers know how to strike when the iron is hot, and they really know how to get paid! They know how to rip off the consumer and they know how to overpay themselves. America is a great country! Nothing has changed. They may have been humbled for a couple of months, but they are now as arrogant as ever. Those that still have jobs that is.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Apple is trading around $138 today. It is a sale, and if you are aggressive, it is a short for two reasons: 1. It has rallied over 75% in a little over 3 months; more importantly, it unveiled the next generation I-phone, but the buzz was muted. No lines outside most Apple stores; Blackberry and Palm are also more formidable alternatives.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

So far so good on the GE hammer panic bottom. GE is now consistently trading over $10 from its low under $7. The Dow is up almost 1500 points off its lowest low. Not coincidentally, a friend who I regard as a great trader on Wall Street called me at the beginning of the month to tell me he was seriously considering taking a job as a doorman. Another person very close to me manages a small brokerage office in Florida. He spoke of panicked investors pulling their accounts. He was worried for the first time in this business and he has been in business over 20 years.

This fear does not show up at market tops but at market bottoms. They may not ring a bell that says buy, but if you can read the fear in people's eyes, there is money to be made.

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Could today's action mark what candlestick chartists call a hammer bottom on GE? GE traded at $5.73 intraday, closed at $6.69 on tremendous volume of approx 750 million shares. GE trading at this level would be an unfathomable occurrence less than a year ago. But by today's standards of imploding stock prices by America's formerly large companies, its just another day at the office! Only time will tell if today marked the end of the liquidation phase of this brutal bear market.