We had our 800 point plus rally to over 13,000 on the Dow from the Bear Stearns panic bailout low in the low 12,000's. Now the Dow has dropped under 12,000 down over 1,000 points from mid May. We are teetering on the brink once more. The second half of this year in the stock market may very well be decided in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

Big Brown and the stock market. Before the Belmont Stakes everyone was convinced that Big Brown would be the first horse in 30 years to win the Triple Crown. When reporters questioned why Big Brown would succeed where others have failed they were told, "Big Brown is different". In 1999 when internet stocks without earnings were selling for 140 times earnings (if they had earnings at all) and some companies with no sales had market valuations 10 times that of General Motors, journalists were told, "this time its different" Well the lesson of Big Brown as the lesson of the stock market is that its never different.